There's this predictive model to see who's going to win the USA presidential election on November 3rd 2020. It's from Allan Lichtman's book The Keys To The Whitehouse.
Below is a video of him going over the keys for this upcoming election. I believe his keys are right on the money... however, Allan's interpretation is wrong, wrong, wrong. Let's watch!
[Edit: this video did not show up on my mobile device. THIS IS THE LINK]
I'm fine with the following picks... Midterms, Primary Contest, Incumbent Re-Election, Third Party, Short-Term Economic Growth, Major Policy Changes, Social Unrest, Scandal (that's debatable - the biggest scandal was the Russian hoax, which exonerated Trump. The media constantly tries to throw anything they can at the wall, hoping it'll stick), Foreign/Military Failures, and Uninspiring/Uncharismatic Challenger.
But let's take a look at the following three. I believe Allan's own Democrat bias has skewed his perception, which means Trump is on target for a surefire victory!
Long-Term Economic Growth I don't think is accurate. Up until April, the American economy was booming. Obviously, the pandemic and our response to it screwed that up, but A) that's not Trump's fault and B) this is a snap-shot in time. The first three years of Trump's presidency gave us the best economy America has had in a long time.
Major Foreign/Military Success - are you kidding me? From crushing ISIS to bringing our troops home to brokering a Middle-East treaty (he was nominated multiple times for a Nobel Peace Prize for God's sake!) Trump has had more success in that arena than Bush and Obama combined (minus the killing of Bin Laden, of course).
Charismatic Incumbent... Hell yes! Sure, he brings out the Trump Derangement Syndrome in a lot of people. But Trump has proved time and time again that he's a showman with star-power. The President inspires his supporters, and will get his base out to vote. Many of us would crawl over broken glass to vote for his re-election. How many Biden supporters can say that?
Let me know in the comments if you agree, disagree, or just want to talk politics.
Hopefully, my current obsession with politics isn't bumming you out. Now that I'm waiting for Cha'alt: Fuchsia Malaise (download the PDF here) to be printed and shipped, I'm taking a little time off from gaming - and the election is less than a month away. Shortly after the election, I hope to get back to regularly scheduled posts about RPG stuff.